Scottsdale, AZ Housing Market Trends and Forecast: 2025 Update
Homes are taking longer to sell due to reduced demand and economic worries.
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The real estate market in Scottsdale, Arizona has changed significantly over the past 18 months or so. And most of those changes benefit home buyers rather than sellers.
In this report, we take an in-depth look at current housing market trends in Scottsdale and what they might mean for the future.
Here are five stats you should know about right up front:
The median home price in Scottsdale is currently around $848,000, up 0.5% from a year ago.
This market has about a 4.5-month supply of homes for sale, more than the national average.
Homes for sale in Scottsdale spent a median of 60 days on the market, a fairly sluggish pace.
Over the past few months, less than 10% of homes ended up selling for more than the list price.
More than 30% of listings had at least one price reduction from the seller, well above the national average.
Bottom line: The Scottsdale real estate market has cooled down over the past year or two, giving home buyers more leverage than they've had for some time.
Current Housing Market Conditions in Scottsdale
Scottsdale's housing market has cooled from the feverish activity of previous years. Home prices have remained mostly flat over the past year, and sales are moving more slowly.
For example, Zillow reports that in March 2025 the median home value in Scottsdale was about $848,172, only 0.5% higher than a year earlier.
In addition to appreciating more slowly, homes in Scottsdale are also taking longer to sell. The median days on market was about 60 in February 2025, versus 48 days a year earlier.
Redfin describes the Scottsdale real estate market as "somewhat competitive" (roughly balanced), meaning neither buyers nor sellers have a dominant edge.
Similarly, Realtor.com currently states that "Scottsdale, AZ is a balanced market in March 2025, which means that the supply and demand of homes are about the same."
Here are some other important trends you should know about in spring 2025:
1. Home prices have been mostly flat over the past year.
Home values in Scottsdale remain high by regional standards but have been mostly flat over the past year. Zillow's Home Value Index puts the average Scottsdale home at around $848,000, up by only about 0.5% from a year earlier.
These small gains suggest prices have essentially leveled off over the past year. After double-digit jumps in prior years, Scottsdale's price growth is now very modest. We expect this to continue through the rest of 2025 and into 2026.
This trend removes some of the urgency from the home buying process. With prices remaining stable, buyers will feel less pressured to make a quick decision. They have more time for property comparison, inspections, and other due diligence.
2. Inventory has improved (more homes for sale).
Over the past few months, from early 2025 into mid-spring, the "months of supply" within the Scottsdale real estate market has fluctuated between 4.5 to 5 months.
The "months of supply" metric indicates how long it would take for all of the homes currently on the market to be sold at the current sales pace, assuming no new listings were added.
More importantly, it shows how housing market supply levels change over time. This is good information to know, because it affects everything from negotiations to home price trends.
The months of supply metric in Scottsdale is higher than the national average. It has risen over the past couple of years, meaning more homes have come onto the market.
The same goes for the Phoenix metro area as a whole. According to an April 2025 report from Realtor.com, active listings within the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale metropolitan area increased by 39% over the previous 12 months.
3. The market has slowed down over the past year.
The overall pace of the Scottsdale real estate market has slowed over the past year. Homes are staying on the market longer than before.
During the past few months, homes listed for sale in Scottsdale spent a median of 60 days on the market before going under contract. That's up from 48 days a year earlier.
The longer market times are consistent with higher inventory and less frenzy. Sellers can no longer assume a quick sale, and buyers have more time to weigh their options.
Other Important Trends to Watch in 2025
Market observers expect Scottsdale's housing market to remain fairly steady in 2025 with only modest changes, unless mortgage rates shift significantly.
Mortgage rates and inflation
Mortgage rates (now in the high 6% - 7% range) will influence demand going forward. If rates decline further in 2025, buyer activity could increase. But if rates remain high due to inflation or Federal Reserve policy, housing demand could remain static or even decline.
In other words, a drop in rates could quickly heat things up, while persistently high rates will likely keep the market calm.
Local demand for housing
Scottsdale benefits from Phoenix metro area growth. For the rest of 2025, strong population and job growth across Maricopa County should support demand for housing. Many Phoenix-area families seek homeownership, especially in sought-after markets like Scottsdale.
Supply and new home construction
New construction is picking up in the area. Builders are adding more homes and apartments, which will further increase supply. Most forecasts see continued new housing starts in 2025.
This extra supply could put some downward pressure on prices, limiting how fast home values can rise.
According to data from Redfin, the city of Scottsdale currently has about a 4.5-month supply of homes for sale. That's a healthy level of inventory and higher than the national average of 3.5 months.
Economic uncertainty and consumer sentiment
Consumer sentiment in the U.S. has plummeted in recent months. This is largely due to economic uncertainty and recession fears brought on by Trump's ever-shifting trade wars.
According to Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist at The Conference Board:
"Consumer confidence declined for a fifth consecutive month in April [2025], falling to levels not seen since the onset of the COVID pandemic."
Similarly, a survey conducted by the University of Michigan found:
"Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead. Labor market expectations remained bleak. Even more concerning for the path of the economy, consumers anticipated weaker income growth for themselves in the year ahead."
The real estate market usually cools considerably when consumer pessimism rises. When people are uncertain about their financial futures—or the economy as a whole—they often postpone major purchases.
Market Forecast Stretching Into 2026
Given these factors, home prices in Scottsdale will probably either remain flat or rise modestly for the rest of 2025 and into 2026. The market could cool further over the coming months.
This echoes the predictions for many housing markets across the U.S., which suggest slower growth ahead rather than an acceleration.
Overall, the Scottsdale real estate market should stay relatively balanced. Home prices could inch upward if buyers return. But they could also decline if economic conditions keep buyers on the sidelines.
Personally, I can't remember a time when the real estate market was so difficult to forecast—aside from the housing collapse of 2008.
Disclaimer: This report includes predictions for the Scottsdale real estate market through 2025 and into 2026. Such views represent an educated guess and should be treated as such.